The case for cleaner trucking

By 2040, commercial trucks are set to become the biggest source of road transportation pollution due to slow adoption of zero-emission technologies compared to cars and buses. 

While the market for zero-emission trucks—like battery-electric and fuel-cell models—has grown substantially, with sales in early 2024 being 16 times higher than in 2021, it's still lagging behind net-zero targets.

Key challenges include the high cost of these trucks, concerns over their range (especially for long-haul routes) and the underdeveloped charging infrastructure, all of which make fleets hesitant to transition. 

However, various experts and sources, including a report by Bloomberg NEF, emphasize that now is the moment for fleets to shift toward zero-emission transportation, backed by advancing technologies and falling battery costs.

China is the clean truck leader

Electric truck sales grew by 35% in 2023, with China leading the market. Over 35,000 e-trucks were sold there, accounting for 70% of global sales. More than half of the 750 available battery and fuel-cell truck models are exclusive to China, where heavy electric trucks are mostly used for short-haul tasks in ports and industrial areas.

The US saw a threefold sales increase in 2023 but only sold 1,200 e-trucks, making up just 0.1% of its truck market. Europe showed stronger progress and also a threefold sales boost, reaching over 10,000 units. Norway stands out in adoption, with e-trucks representing 10% of all truck sales so far in 2024.

Mainstream adoption is on the horizon

In the second quarter of this year, electric and fuel-cell vehicles accounted for just under 2% of global heavy truck sales. “That leaves a long way to go for countries to hit their various climate targets,” said Bloomberg NEF.

Adoption, especially in China, has picked up the pace in the last two years, and e-truck sales are expected to represent 6% of sales by the end of 2024. “A lack of available models, high costs and limited charging infrastructure are holding the market back elsewhere,” added Bloomberg.

According to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Global EV Outlook for 2024, optimism is on the horizon: “We expect electric truck sales to continue to increase thanks to strong and ambitious policies, such as the European Union’s CO₂ standards for heavy-duty vehicles {HDVs), which target a 90% CO₂ emissions reduction by 2040. In the United States, the newly adopted heavy-duty emissions regulation is expected to result in zero-emission vehicle (ZMV) sales shares of up to 60% by 2032 in different segments.”

Truck batteries are getting cheaper

The average price of a truck battery pack stands at US$139/kWh in 2023, according to Bloomberg NEF. 

This cost is expected to drop to US$88/kWh by 2030. Prices between 2023 and 2022 were 14% lower due to material price drops and capacity increases, and supply currently outstrips demand, keeping prices lower. China currently has the lowest average battery costs at US$100/kWh.

“Electric trucks still depend on affordable batteries to make economic sense,” Chris Busch, director, transportation and senior economist, Energy Innovation, wrote on Forbes.

“New Energy Innovation research shows electric HDV cost declines have accelerated, meaning they are on track to be cheaper than diesel decades faster than expected,” added Busch. “This economic progress is important for fleet operators planning their purchases and government officials considering policies to encourage the electric HDV transition.”

Predictive truck routing

Range anxiety is still a key barrier for fleet owners. Minimizing that downtime means trucks stay on the road for longer. So getting your charging and routing strategy right is crucial. Predictive truck routing technology can help fleets reduce time, emissions and cost by helping them plan the most effective routes based on multiple factors.

With predictive routing, fleet managers can also replace time-consuming, manual tasks, such as load and capacity planning, with predictive algorithms that help them generate real-time ETAs, manage and analyze dwell times as well as create driver-facing applications.