TfL aims to make London's 9,000 buses fully electric by 2030

For Transport for London (TfL), the UK government body responsible for most of the transport in London, not only does "every journey matter" — its effect on the city and its environment should also be taken into account.

Electrifying the fleet is a big task for a network that operates for 33 million miles per year, carrying 145 million customers.

That’s why more than 1,600 zero-emission single- and double-deck buses operate in the fleet — up from 485 in March 2021.

TfL says it’s on track to have 2,500 by next year — Stagecoach alone is planning to increase its number of electric buses to 350.

It’s all part of TfL’s plans to accelerate the conversion of its 9,000-strong fleet of buses to zero-emissions models over the next decade.

Double-decker electric dreams

Since 2021, Mayor Sadiq Khan has required that all new buses entering the fleet in London be zero-emission with an original target to have a fully zero-emission bus fleet by 2034.

Those plans have now been accelerated with increased support and £500 million (US$649.6 million) more in government funding from the UK’s central government.

“Electrifying London’s bus fleet is central to the Mayor's mission for London to achieve Net Zero Carbon by 2030 and continue to reduce air pollution in the capital,” a spokesperson for TfL told HERE360.

An average of around 1,000 conventional buses per year would need to be replaced with zero-emission buses to meet that new deadline. So why have they put their foot on the proverbial gas?

Why the switch up is being revved up

It’s hoped that helping improve air quality for all will make travel brighter for everyone.“Toxic air pollution contributes to thousands of premature deaths, increases in asthma, causes children to grow up with stunted lungs and is linked to an increased risk of developing dementia,” TfL warned.

Their efforts appear to be paying off. “London has the largest zero-emission bus fleet in Western Europe, but TfL is working to expand it even further.

“The fleet has almost 1,700 zero-emission buses and all other TfL buses are low-emission and meet Euro VI emission standards.

“Alongside the Mayor, TfL is looking at how to deliver a 100 percent zero-emission fleet by 2030,” they concluded.

TfL’s Bus Action Plan has explained that solely charging overnight won’t be suitable for 15% of routes.

That means the government is having to review and trial daytime top-up charging in addition to experimenting with a fleet of 20 hydrogen buses.

However, batteries are likely to have the edge with a previous hydrogen bus maintenance facility in the capital being swiftly shut down after its 2010 launch.

Instead, bus operators are hoping to electrify sites via contracts with companies like Zenobe. These will allow for managing power connections, installing battery storage, financing chargers and vehicles and even purchasing electricity.

There are some crossed wires

This acceleration to electric vehicles (EVs) is not without challenges; intense competition for land and grid connections means other projects are apparently being prioritized.

Despite BloombergNEF’s 2024 Power Grid Investment Outlook forecasting that grid investment in the UK will rise to US$13.2 billion by 2026, distribution upgrades are lagging, risking delays for bus depots.

While transmission spending is two to three times what it’s been over the last decade, distribution is only set to rise between 12 and 33 percent because Britain is proactively investing in transmission for wind farms.

Distribution-network investment, on the other hand, has been more reactive, raising the risk of grid upgrade delays for projects like bus depots.

For operators coming to grips with the costs of more expensive electric buses and site upgrades, TfL is taking the risk away via fixed seven-year contracts delivering a cost per mile.

Cheap electricity, lower maintenance costs and plunging battery prices may help with bus operators potentially recoup their investment by opening their chargers that sit unused most of the time. 

So what’s the payoff? “Making the entire fleet zero-emission would save an estimated five million tons of carbon over the next two decades,” TfL emphasized.

The body’s ‘Bus Action Plan’ aims to increase the number of customers choosing to travel by bus across London by making bus travel more reliable, faster, greener — and cheaper. 

TfL's funding pipeline for zero-emission buses also lowers costs for other local authorities outside of London by creating economies of scale.

Competition for power is going to be worse in some areas, due to other loads from initiatives like data centers coming online. 

It’s not just passengers who will reap the rewards. TfL's investment in zero-emission buses is supporting around 3,000 jobs across the UK, including locations such as Ballymena, Falkirk and Yorkshire.

By creating capacity and certainty for a wider zero-emission bus market, this investment is paving the way for green national economic growth.